The SEE countries have shown their potential numerous times, becoming an investment hub with a reinforced business climate led by a wave of reforms, privatisations, and developments of new industries. These countries have managed to attract a high influx of FDI’s thanks to low labour and utility costs, accompanied by a multilingual and qualified workforce. The governments of the SEE countries remain committed to maintaining a friendly investor climate by pushing forward with the reforms and offering incentives – foreign investors can own up to 100% interest in a company, open bank accounts in domestic and foreign currencies, and employ foreign citizens easily. Relaxed regulations on foreign transfers of income and protection from nationalisation, expropriation, and requisition, are a further testament to the business climate.
Karanovic & Partners is dedicated to sharing some of the most interesting opportunities that the region has to offer. We bring you a flavour of what the SEE region has in store – for more information please contact us at bd@karanovicpartners.com.
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Serbia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
SRB 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 46,800 53,300 60,400 72,900 80,100 86,000 GDP Real, % -0.9% 7.5% 2.5% 3.8% 4.0% 4.5% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 6,727 7,761 9,067 11,071 11,350 13,100 Inflation, % EOY 1.3% 7.9% 15.1% 12.5% 4.7% 3.7% Net FDI (EUR M) 2,883 3,678 4,348 4,606 4,860 4,980 Public Debt, % GDP 57.4% 57.1% 55.7% 48.1% 47.6% 47.1% External Debt, % GDP 66.3% 68.4% 69.4% 60.4% 60.2% 60.1% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 13,800 16,600 20,000 24,900 28,800 29,100 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -12.7% -13.1% -18.9% -11.8% -13.0% -14.2% FX Rate, EUR/RSD (EOY) 117.6 117.6 117.3 117.1 117.1 117.1 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 512 555 629 717 826 840 Unemployment, % 9.7% 11.4% 9.4% 9.4% 8.5% 8.1% Population (M) 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s Ba2; Stable S&P BB+; Stable Fitch BB+; Stable Croatia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
HRV 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 50,500 58,300 68,000 76,500 81,400 86,500 GDP Real, % -8.5% 13.1% 6.2% 2.1% 1.4% 2.2% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 12,474 14,990 17,635 19,615 21,420 22,763 Inflation, % EOY -0.7% 5.5% 13.1% 7.4% 2.0% 2.7% Net FDI (EUR M) 707 2,798 3,672 2,808 3,135 3,249 Public Debt, % GDP 86.9% 78.3% 68.2% 68.3% 67.3% 65.8% External Debt, % GDP 81.8% 80.9% 72.9% 79.5% 77.4 % 79.7% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 18,900 25,000 27,800 3,300 3,600 4,100 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -17.5% -19.6% -26.7% -22.4% -20.7% -20.7% FX Rate, EUR/HRK (EOY) 7.5 7.5 7.5 – – – AVG Net Salary (EUR) 890 923 976 1,100 1,320 1,372 Unemployment, % 7.5% 7.6% 7.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% Population (M) 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 Source: Croatian National Bank, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s Baa2; Positive S&P BBB+; Positive Fitch BBB+; Positive Slovenia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
SLO 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 47,000 52,200 57,000 63,100 63,900 70,900 GDP Real, % -4.3% 8.2% 2.5% 3.3% 3.5% 2.9% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 22,361 24,770 27,061 29,932 31,379 33,164 Inflation, % EOY -1.2% 4.9% 10.3% 8.1% 2.1% 3.3% Net FDI (EUR M) 282 418 1,311 504 792 904 Public Debt, % GDP 79.8% 74.5% 72.3% 61.8% 58.2% 57.5% External Debt, % GDP 102.7% 97.3% 90.9% 91.8% 91.2% 89.3% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 1,071 2,002 2,137 2,155 2,482 – Trade Account Balance, % GDP 5.3% 1.7% -3.8% 0.7% 2.8% 2.3% AVG Net Salary (EUR) 1,252 1,317 1,322 1,436 1,519 1,594 Unemployment, % 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 6.1% 4.6% 4.5% Population (M) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Sources: National Statistical Office, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s A3; Stable S&P AA-; Stable Fitch A; Stable Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
BIH 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 18,194 20,468 23,273 26,041 27,184 28,449 GDP Real, % -2.9% 7.3% 3.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.4% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 5,237 5,934 6,817 7,610 7,984 8,382 Inflation, % EOY -1.6% 6.3% 14.7% 2.2% 1.4% 3.2% Net FDI (EUR M) 330 532 698 859 843 882 Public Debt, % GDP 35.7% 33.3% 29.4% 25.8% 27.5% 28.9% External Debt, % GDP 25.5% 24.2% 20.8% 18.1% 17.8% 17.3% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 7,100 8,400 8,200 8,300 8,700 9,200 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -17.6% -17.9% -22.4% -20.1% -22.5% -24.0% FX Rate, EUR/BAM (EOY) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 491 512 574 641 710 771 Unemployment, % 15.9% 17.4% 15.4% 13.2% 13.1% 12.7% Population (M) 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Sources: Statistical Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s B3; Stable S&P B+; Stable Fitch – North Macedonia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
NM 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 10,800 11,600 13,033 13,655 14,395 15,191 GDP Real, % -4.5% 3.9% 2.2% 1.0% 2.0% 2.6% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 5,135 5,527 7,096 7,477 7,898 8,352 Inflation, % EOY 2.3% 4.9% 18.7% 3.6% 3.4% 2.7% Net FDI (EUR M) 205 383 658 519 734 623 Public Debt, % GDP 59.7% 61.0% 59.1% 62.1% 66.8% 68.0% External Debt, % GDP 80.2% 81.9% 82.8% 83.9% 84.8% 84.3% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 3,400 3,600 3,900 4,500 4,700 4,900 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -16.8% -20.2% -26.7% -19.3% -21.6% -22.2% FX Rate, EUR/MKD (EOY) 61.7 61.5 61.6 61.6 61.6 61.6 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 426 467 518 598 679 762 Unemployment, % 16.4% 15.7% 14.4% 13.1% 12.5% 11.9% Population (M) 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Sources: National Bank of North Macedonia, National Statistical Office, IMF, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s – S&P BB-; Stable Fitch BB+; Stable Montenegro
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
MNE 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 4,193 4,955 5,924 6,964 7,508 7,928 GDP Real, % -15.2% 13.0% 6.4% 6.3% 3.3% 3.1% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 6,744 7,973 9,591 11,292 12,168 12,870 Inflation, % EOY -0.9% 4.6% 17.2% 4.3% 2.5% 3.3% Net FDI (EUR M) 470 580 782 432 526 579 Public Debt, % GDP 105.2% 84.0% 69.2% 59.3% 61.3% 61.0% External Debt, % GDP 208.4% 191.5% 159.0% 129.3% 129.9% 125.5% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 1,746 1,737 1,915 1,624 – – Trade Account Balance, % GDP -39.2% -38.7% -45.1% -42.9% -44.5% -45.7% AVG Net Salary (EUR) 524 532 712 792 855 942 Unemployment, % 17.9% 16.7% 14.7% 13.1% 11.5% 11.3% Population (M) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Sources: Statistical Office of Montenegro, IMF, Erste Bank, World Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s B1; Stable S&P B; Stable Fitch – Albania
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
ALB 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F GDP nominal EUR (Bil.) 13.8 13.3 15.2 118.0 21.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 GDP real (%) 2.1% -3.3% 8.9% 4.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 4,804.9 5,292.9 6,131.7 7,392.7 9,067.9 9,573.6 10,094.9 10,660.7 Inflation (average) % (EYO) 1.4% 1.6 % 2.0% 6.7% 4.8% 2.3% 3.0% 3.0% FDI (EUR M) 1073 937 1031 1372 1492 1100* Public Debt, % GDP 65.0% 73.9% 74.1% 64.1% 57.5% 56.3% 55.8% 55.0% Domestic Debt Stock/GDP
35,30% 39,10% 37.83% 34.26% 31.30% 31.89% – – External Debt Stock % GDP 30,42% 35,20% 36.65% 30.20% 26.20 % 23,55% – – Foreign reserves (EUR M)
3,359.6 3,942.4 4,972.2 4,952.1 5,862 6,389.5 6,845.8 7,358.7 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -13.7% -14.4 -13.3% -10.3% -5.1% 7.9% 7.1% 6.3% Unemployment, %
12.0% 12.2% 12.0% 11.3% 11.2% 10.2% 10.2% 9.8 Population (M) 2.9 2.9 2.83 2.8 2.41 2.4 2.4 2.4 Doing Business 69.51 67.7 – – – – – – Sources: Information Technology Audit in Statistics Institute (INSTAT), Bank of Albania, Ministry of Finance and Economy.
*Includes data for the first 9 months of the year.
Ratings:
Moody’s B1; Stable S&P B; Positive Fitch –
*This Market Opportunities page has been prepared by Karanović & Partners for information purposes, based on the publicly available information only. Karanović & Partners is not liable for the accuracy of the information presented on this page. This page is not and should not be regarded as investment or legal advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular course of action. Karanović & Partners does not and shall not act as an agent in relation to any of the investment opportunities listed on this page. Karanović & Partners has a long-standing cooperation with attorneys in all the jurisdictions referred to on this page.