The SEE countries have shown their potential numerous times, becoming an investment hub with a reinforced business climate led by a wave of reforms, privatisations, and developments of new industries. These countries have managed to attract a high influx of FDI’s thanks to low labour and utility costs, accompanied by a multilingual and qualified workforce. The governments of the SEE countries remain committed to maintaining a friendly investor climate by pushing forward with the reforms and offering incentives – foreign investors can own up to 100% interest in a company, open bank accounts in domestic and foreign currencies, and employ foreign citizens easily. Relaxed regulations on foreign transfers of income and protection from nationalisation, expropriation, and requisition, are a further testament to the business climate.
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Serbia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
SRB 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F 2026F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 53,300 60,400 72,900 80,100 86,000 – GDP Real, % 7.5% 2.5% 3.8% 3.8% 4.5% 4.5% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 7,761 9,067 11,071 11,350 13,100 – Inflation, % EOY 7.9% 15.1% 12.5% 4.6% 4.1% 3.3% Net FDI (EUR M) 3,678 4,348 4,606 4,860 4,980 – Public Debt, % GDP 57.1% 55.7% 48.1% 47.2% 46.4% 46.0% External Debt, % GDP 68.4% 69.4% 60.4% 60.2% 60.1% – Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 16,600 20,000 24,900 28,800 29,100 – Trade Account Balance, % GDP -13.1% -18.9% -11.8% -13.0% -14.2% – FX Rate, EUR/RSD (EOY) 117.6 117.3 117.1 117.0 117.0 116.9 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 555 629 717 838 840 – Unemployment, % 11.4% 9.4% 9.4% 8.6% 8.1% 7.9% Population (M) 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s Ba2; Positive S&P BBB-; Stable Fitch BB+; Positive Croatia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
HRV 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F 2026F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 58,300 68,000 76,500 85,500 86,000 87,000 GDP Real, % 13.1% 6.2% 2.1% 3.8 % 2.9% 2.8% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 14,990 17,635 19,615 22,110 22,631 22,894 Inflation, % EOY 5.5% 13.1% 7.4% 3.0% 3.2% 2.5% Net FDI (EUR M) 2,798 3,672 2,808 3,200 3,410 3,592 Public Debt, % GDP 78.3% 68.2% 68.3% 57.7% 57.1% 56.4% External Debt, % GDP 80.9% 72.9% 79.5% 77.4 % 79.7% – Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 25,000 27,800 3,300 3,600 4,100 – Trade Account Balance, % GDP -19.6% -26.7% -22.4% -20.7% -20.7% -20.7% FX Rate, EUR/HRK (EOY) 7.5 7.5 – – – – AVG Net Salary (EUR) 923 976 1,100 1,323 1,372 – Unemployment, % 7.6% 7.1% 3.7% 5.2% 4.8% 4.6% Population (M) 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 Source: Croatian National Bank, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s A3; Positive S&P A-; Positive Fitch A-; Positive Slovenia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
SLO 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F 2026F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 52,200 57,000 63,100 66,900 69,995 73,332 GDP Real, % 8.2% 2.5% 3.3% 1.6% 2.2% 2.4% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 24,770 27,061 29,932 31,572 33,023 34,596 Inflation, % EOY 4.9% 10.3% 8.1% 2.0% 2.4% 2.1% Net FDI (EUR M) 418 1,311 504 792 904 – Public Debt, % GDP 74.5% 72.3% 61.8% 66.6% 65.0% 64.3% External Debt, % GDP 97.3% 90.9% 91.8% 87.0% 83.7% 80.2% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 2,002 2,137 2,155 2,732 – – Trade Account Balance, % GDP 1.7% -3.8% 0.7% 5.3% 4.7% 4.7% AVG Net Salary (EUR) 1,317 1,322 1,436 1,526 1,569 – Unemployment, % 4.5% 4.0% 6.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% Population (M) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Sources: National Statistical Office, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s A3; Stable S&P AA-; Stable Fitch A; Stable Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
BIH 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F 2026F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 20,468 23,273 26,041 27,184 28,449 30,106 GDP Real, % 7.3% 3.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.4% 2.9% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 5,934 6,817 7,610 7,984 8,382 8,905 Inflation, % EOY 6.3% 14.7% 2.2% 1.4% 3.2% 2.3 Net FDI (EUR M) 532 698 859 843 882 933 Public Debt, % GDP 33.3% 29.4% 25.8% 27.5% 28.9% 29.9% External Debt, % GDP 24.2% 20.8% 18.1% 17.8% 17.3% – Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 8,400 8,200 8,300 8,700 9,200 – Trade Account Balance, % GDP -17.9% -22.4% -20.1% -22.5% -24.0% -24.2% FX Rate, EUR/BAM (EOY) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 512 574 641 710 771 826 Unemployment, % 17.4% 15.4% 13.2% 13.1% 12.7% 12.4% Population (M) 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Sources: Statistical Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s B3; Stable S&P B+; Stable Fitch – North Macedonia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
NM 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F 2026F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 11,600 13,033 13,655 14,680 15,810 16,840 GDP Real, % 3.9% 2.2% 1.0% 2.2% 3.6% 3.8% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 5,527 7,096 7,477 8,010 8,740 9,420 Inflation, % EOY 4.9% 18.7% 3.6% 4.4% 2.7% 3.5% Net FDI (EUR M) 383 658 519 1,088 – – Public Debt, % GDP 61.0% 59.1% 62.1% 66.8% 68.0% 67.7% External Debt, % GDP 81.9% 82.8% 83.9% 84.8% 84.3% 84.1% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 3,600 3,900 4,500 5,000 5,200 5,400 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -20.2% -26.7% -19.3% -21.6% -22.2% -22.7% FX Rate, EUR/MKD (EOY) 61.5 61.6 61.6 61.6 61.6 61.6 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 467 518 598 679 762 842 Unemployment, % 15.7% 14.4% 13.1% 12.5% 11.9% 11.7% Population (M) 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Sources: National Bank of North Macedonia, National Statistical Office, IMF, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s – S&P BB-; Stable Fitch BB+; Stable Montenegro
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
MNE 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F 2026F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 4,955 5,924 6,964 7,508 7,928 8,311 GDP Real, % 13.0% 6.4% 6.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.4% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 7,973 9,591 11,292 12,168 12,870 13,492 Inflation, % EOY 4.6% 17.2% 4.3% 2.5% 3.3% 3.6% Net FDI (EUR M) 580 782 432 526 579 640 Public Debt, % GDP 84.0% 69.2% 59.3% 61.3% 61.0% 64.4% External Debt, % GDP 191.5% 159.0% 129.3% 129.9% 125.5% 126.3% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 1,737 1,915 1,624 – – – Trade Account Balance, % GDP -38.7% -45.1% -42.9% -44.5% -45.7% -45.5 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 532 712 792 855 942 999 Unemployment, % 16.7% 14.7% 13.1% 11.5% 11.3% 11.1% Population (M) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Sources: Statistical Office of Montenegro, IMF, Erste Bank, World Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s Ba3; Stable S&P B+; Stable Fitch – Albania
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
ALB 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F GDP nominal EUR (Bil.) 13.8 13.4 15.2 118.1 21.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 GDP real (%) 2.1% -3.3% 9.0% 4.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 4,804.9 5,292.9 6,131.7 7,392.7 9,067.9 9,573.6 10,094.9 10,660.7 Inflation (average) % (EYO) 1.4% 1.6 % 2.0% 6.7% 4.8% 2.3% 3.0% 3.0% FDI (EUR M) 1073 937 1031 1372 1492 1161* Public Debt, % GDP 65.0% 73.9% 74.1% 64.1% 57.5% 56.3% 55.8% 55.0% Domestic Debt Stock/GDP
34,89% 38,89% 37.62% 34.208% 31.30% 31.61% – – External Debt Stock % GDP 30,07% 35,02% 36.45% 30.04% 26.20 % 23,12% – – Foreign reserves (EUR M)
3,359.6 3,942.4 4,972.2 4,952.1 5,889 6,389.5 6,845.8 7,358.7 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -13.7% -14.4 -13.3% -10.3% -5.1% -7.9% -7.1% -6.3% Unemployment, %
12.0% 12.2% 12.0% 11.3% 11.2% 10.2% 9.8% 9.5% Population (M) 2.9 2.9 2.83 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Doing Business 69.51 67.7 – – – – – – Sources: Information Technology Audit in Statistics Institute (INSTAT), Bank of Albania, Ministry of Finance and Economy.
*Includes data for the first 9 months of 2024.
Ratings:
Moody’s B1; Stable S&P B; Positive Fitch –
*This Market Opportunities page has been prepared by Karanović & Partners for information purposes, based on the publicly available information only. Karanović & Partners is not liable for the accuracy of the information presented on this page. This page is not and should not be regarded as investment or legal advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular course of action. Karanović & Partners does not and shall not act as an agent in relation to any of the investment opportunities listed on this page. Karanović & Partners has a long-standing cooperation with attorneys in all the jurisdictions referred to on this page.